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Prospective analysis of China's market in machinery and equipment industry in 2020
2021-11-12
We believe that the epidemic will not change the expansion and upgrading trend of China's manufacturing, and we focus on the opportunities for high-quality leading positions. We believe that the overall impact of the new coronavirus-infected pneumonia epidemic on China's manufacturing industry in early 2020 is indirect. With the central and local governments issuing a number of support policies, we expect that late February to March may be a critical period for resumption of work. , the short-term negative impact of the epidemic on the manufacturing industry is expected to be gradually resolved, and demand may recover within 1 to 2 quarters. However, we need to fully estimate potential risks. Affected by the epidemic, the industry will still face problems such as shortage of employees and recruitment difficulties, poor supply chain connection, and tight capital chains for small and medium-sized enterprises in the short term. However, we believe that the epidemic will not change the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry to further internationalization, intelligence and high-end. The core logic is that the demand base for high-end manufacturing has not fundamentally changed. Market fluctuations may provide good opportunities for high-quality companies to deploy, leading companies in the industry with full orders and strong capital chains.
The resumption of work in February is generally delayed in various places, but the overall losses of listed companies in the national machinery industry are expected to be limited. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, many provinces and cities required enterprises to resume work no earlier than 24:00 on February 9 (except for enterprises related to important national economy and people's livelihood), resulting in the delay in the resumption of work of most manufacturing enterprises. Since the 2019 annual report has not yet been disclosed, we made scenario assumptions on the 2018 machinery company data to provide a reference for the impact of the epidemic on the revenue of listed companies in 2020: If it is assumed that 7 working days are reduced in 2018Q1, the total revenue of machinery listed companies in 2018 or It will decrease by 2.3%. The annual income of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong regions, where the manufacturing industry is concentrated, may decrease by 1.9%, 2.5%, and 2.3% respectively. Considering that the epidemic in Hubei is serious, the working days in 2018Q1 will decrease by 7 and 30 respectively. Under different scenarios of , 60 days and 60 days, the revenue of Hubei Machinery listed companies may decrease by 1.8%, 7.6% and 15.3% respectively.
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